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Thursday, 20 December 2012

The big WH myth

Posted on 22:00 by Unknown
Wormholes are considered the place where the money is. While trading is clearly bigger money, no one doubts that WHs have the highest primary income. I mean grindable one that "little guys" can get. A trader or a hauler alone earns nothing. He flips and moves items other people create. You can't trade with tritanium without someone mining it. The miners make about 20M/hour/account. You can do better by running missions or rat, about 50-100M/hour. This is the primary income in known space.

In a WH by capital escalating sleepers you can do 2-300M/hour. Therefore WH people are the richest people in the galaxy. The average highsec resident is around 20-30M/hour, 1/10 of the WH income. No wonder they can afford to throw pimped capitals into battles regularly, things that the average nullsec-dweller might save for months. Or so it is believed.

Let's check on the numbers shall we! We have these wonderful killboard that inform us about ships destroyed. Even better it has statistics. For example we can look up on Delve region and see that 162862 ships were destroyed with 9822175221274 (9.8T) ISK value at the moment I'm writing this. I don't know what time period it refers to, neither I care, since I only want to compare regions. You probably did not know but wormhole systems are in regions too. So you can see that in W-space region 30 10063 kills happened with 2.9T value. What is W-space region 30? Dotlan helps telling us that this region has 113 systems, all class 6. This is the only region with class 6 systems by the way. So off I went and checked on every single nullsec and WH region and collected the data for kills, values, WH class and system count, then calculated the sums for the various types:

"Region","Class","Kills ","ISK (b)","Systems"; 1,1,3656,293,133; 2,1,11456,828,153; 3,1,3916,317,62; 4,2,15669,1660,104; 5,2,15973,1663,102; 6,2,8196,776,141; 7,2,2124,270,50; 8,2,13362,1287,128; 9,3,3278,510,56; 10,3,3464,468,51; 11,3,5171,762,86; 12,3,13989,1769,105; 13,3,2561,383,43; 14,3,4693,651,96; 15,3,3991,549,58; 16,4,2936,401,60; 17,4,356,84,25; 18,4,1648,220,46; 19,4,2410,412,94; 20,4,1329,218,50; 21,4,5890,866,115; 22,4,1313,258,87; 23,4,1331,168,28; 24,5,7792,1577,91; 25,5,6432,1522,100; 26,5,2560,697,68; 27,5,8670,1394,71; 28,5,7417,1633,92; 29,5,5661,979,90; 30,6,10026,2884,113; "Branch","Null",36485,3465,94; "Cache","Null",7277,1004,44; "Catch","Null",126193,9230,108; "Cloud ring","Null",24582,1857,40; "Cobalt edge","Null",36340,3333,69; "Curse","Null",108477,6629,50; "Deklein","Null",33351,3066,68; "Delve","Null",162771,9814,97; "Detorid","Null",18508,1952,96; "Esoteria","Null",6941,1064,85; "Etherium Reach","Null",59622,5179,100; "Fade","Null",14281,1168,27; "Feythabolis","Null",10327,1516,89; "Fountain","Null",75273,5306,115; "Geminate","Null",81594,8006,84; "Great Wildlands","Null",59622,4095,101; "Immensea","Null",15386,1817,84; "Impass","Null",5608,758,51; "Insmother","Null",26779,3101,110; "Malpais","Null",8274,1184,102; "Oasa","Null",9581,1131,85; "Omist","Null",8980,992,43; "Outer Passage","Null",3660,568,88; "Outer Ring","Null",14932,1095,59; "Paragon Soul","Null",5041,466,39; "Period Basis","Null",24439,1988,40; "Perrigen Falls","Null",12034,1567,104; "Providence","Null",80990,6498,84; "Pure Blind","Null",63706,4409,85; "Querious","Null",59592,4809,95; "Scalding Pass","Null",29496,3353,81; "Stain","Null",51394,3800,132; "Syndicate","Null",148444,9316,106; "Tenal","Null",15134,1515,68; "Tenerifis","Null",14767,1579,81; "The Kalevala Expanse","Null",23906,2610,69; "The Spire","Null",3689,516,72; "Tribute","Null",100491,7354,54; "Vale of the Silent","Null",39772,3355,118; "Venal","Null",76225,6461,95; "Wicked Creek","Null",18051,2178,82;


Now this chart is full of surprises! The first myth is that "people live in C5-6 since why would anyone live in smaller". Yet 58% of the WH kill value is in C1-4. You might say that it's C6-dwellers roaming, but it doesn't change anything. If they are in C4, they are in C4. Where you live is defined by where you are and not where you log off. It's the same as the guy who spends 90% of his time in highsec and calls himself "lowsec pirate". C1-4 holes are anything but irrelevant. Also, you are least likely to die in C4s (where C5+ people might roam) while most likely to die in C2 where they probably won't. We have to face that there is a large unsung low-WH community, larger than the famous and visible 8B-shield-Moros-heroes.

Now let's look for more data shall we! Sugar found this long ago (if you know more recent, please send me the link):
This chart says that the WH people have 5.86/5.51 = 1.06 more kills than an average EVE player. In null the same number is 52.37/20.07 = 2.61. Their ratio is 2.61/1.06 = 2.46, meaning the average null member has 2.46x more kills. Since the average value of a kill in null is 81M while 144M in WH, 2.46*81/144 = 1.38: an average null dweller spends 38% more ISK on PvP than an average WH dweller. So much for the "WH-ers throw insane ISK on PvP because they can afford it".

To extract further data, we must do some magic with numbers. You can see that the average kill value is indeed higher in WH than in nullsec. The reason is simple: the more ships you lose, the cheaper they become since you have to replace them from the same income (1x1B = 10x100M = 100x10M). However since PvP-ers earn money to PvP, this isn't linear. I mean if he is out of money, he stops doing PvP and go do PvE. It reminded me of temperature vs chemical reaction speed: the higher the temperature is (average ISK of the players) the faster the reaction is (the PvP). Now the connection of v-T is exponential. So I plotted the data of every region: kill value vs ln(kill number):
Now look at that! The line fits to the trend of nullsec regions. The regions with more kills have lower kill value (probably lot of frig and T1 cruiser roams) while the regions with less kills have higher. The WH regions are also plotted and you can see that the C1 and C2 ones are way below the line. A C1 dweller would spend about half as much on PvP as an average nullsec member if other conditions (mostly PvP frequency) would be equal. C3 and C4 are perfectly on the line, showing that they are in the same boots as the nullseccers. The C5 is 150% above the line the C6 is 220%. So even the elite of WH, the C6 dwellers are about 2x more rich than the big average of null. The only alternative explanation is that the WH dwellers are PvP-avoiding carebears who hoard their ISK and don't spend it on PvP.

Actually this result is only surprising to people who believed the propaganda instead of thinking for themselves. Wormholes were introduced with Apocrypha expansion in March 2009, almost 3 years ago. More than enough time to equalize the incomes. Still the myth of the wealth in WHs remained because of two reasons: at first the sleeper grind ISK/hour is stellar compared to the nullsec ratting. However the nullsec ratter can rat in all his PvE time. He has a station, he has local channel, he can set up courier contracts for his loot and to get his ship/ammo. The WH dweller can't just hit sleepers all day, he must mind his tower, roll holes and scan to be safe and go lot of jumps with a covops hauler to get his loot to Jita and get replacements. The WH life needs lot of PvE time which is not earning ISK. The second reason of the myth is that the large, front-page battles of null are fought by battlecruiser blobs, putting the "Drakes of poverty" to display while the titans are hiding from the eyes of the public. On the other hand the mass restrictions demand WH-ers to put their most expensive ships on the line in an eviction attempt, so the media will talk about their shinies while their cheap ships live and die in silence.

So my "ISK guide to veterans" stays unchallenged. If you want ISK, you should be in highsec.


PS: I have an idea of one more mythbusting post but can't get the data for it. I got the above data by clicking on the links and copy-pasting. That can be done for 60 regions. Not for 7500 systems. To get a more accurate version of the above analysis and to defeat the last myth, I need system kill data like this somehow extracted from the API of the killboard: "Sujarento, 0.3, The Citadel, 5822, 453601611603" for every system (highsec, lowsec, nullsec, WH). I guess the kill numbers are for the last month, if previous months could be extracted too, that would greatly increase the reliability of the results. If you are an API wizard and want the last myth of EVE economy to fall, please create this database and send it in mail or upload it somewhere and send the link.

PS2: of course the optimal would be an insane sized database with all the individual kills giving fields "Systemname, secstatus/WH class, lossvalue". That would allow mapping the wealth of various type of players perfectly, but doubt that that can be created at all.
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