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Wednesday, 13 June 2012

Spotlight bias and a mining Rokh fleet

Posted on 22:00 by Unknown
We were talking about nullsec industry on the goblinworks channel and they kept re-iterating a problem: even if you "own" sovereignity not only in the system but in everything in 10 jumps and you have Cyno jammer in the system and everything in 10 jumps and stations where you can undock from and a titan sitting under the POS shield with pilot an Alt-Tab away, you still have to stop mining when the first neutral shows up in the local channel.

Hulks are extremely vulnerable and that one neutral can be a scout with covert cyno generator or simply the enemy can have a half dozen stealth bombers logged out in the system, so if you don't jump instantly, you have all your Hulks dead. Hell, he can be totally alone and still kill 1-2 Hulks. A single guy AFK-ing in a cloaked T1 frigate acts as "system wide mining jammer".

My answer was simple: a mining Rokh fleet:
Note: if you don't have perfect skills, replace the cargohold with another co-processor. If you don't have Caldari BS 5, replace a shield extender with another invu.

The mining Rokh mines 1000m3/minute and has 180K EHP without boosts. With a Rorqual under the POS shield as fleet booster, and a Tengu AFK-ing below POS shield providing Shield links, you'll be busy emptying the cargohold all the time while sitting under 200K EHP. If the system is cyno-jammed, and you have some friendly AFK-ers sitting in local (the enemy don't know who they are, they can be cloaked titans) you are safe to mine.

One guy in local? Turn on tanking modules and mine on. Maybe call back the mining drones and send out the Hobgoblins if you are jumpy.
You only need to warp if local spikes or he actually commence an attack. In that case you don't actually warp, just align, let the Hobgoblin fleet kill that guy if he tackles one Rokh and warp away.

I considered "problem solved", but it was not. Actually I faced the same thing on the channel what I saw when I introduced the transport interceptors: "they will be killed". Since Rokhs are one of the most tanked subcaps in the game, they finally visioned a 50+B Tengu-fleet with covert cynos and warp scrambling stealth bombers and they were completely sure that the mining Rokh fleet will be killed.

No doubt that the fleet can be killed. Just like transport interceptors. Or fully tanked and really empty Orcas in highsec. Or supercap fleets. Yet they are usually not. You are killed in EVE in two cases:
  • If you are an easy target
  • Someone is especially after you
Mining Rokhs deep in a cyno-jammed enemy sov are not exactly the easiest target that a roam-for-fun would imagine. At first most roam-for-fun can't even kill them. A small gang can't even kill one if they have a cloaked Basi sitting on 70km. A medium fleet can find much-much juicier targets than them. If someone is sporting in a serious fleet they have much better ideas than jumping on 300M mining ships with 200K EHP. The gain (killing a few Rokhs) is not even near the risk (bubbled by cloaked interdictors, a capital fleet undocks and tear you to shreds).

I couldn't imagine why are they unable to understand it. I mean they aren't retards. Just like the people who were sure that I'll lose my transport interceptors in a few days if they fly with 50M (they are happy for 3 months flying with 500M). They were not idiots in the sense of telling factually wrong things, they just considered a 0.01% chance to be 100%. If you are not stupid or explicitly go for trouble in EVE, the chance of death is equal to be hit by lightning. It does happen. But very rarely.

The solution - again - was in the social psychology books: the spotlight bias. It says that an average (social) person greatly overestimates his visibility. The typical study is giving them a lame T-shirt and ask them how would people react. They are all sure that "everyone will laugh on me or at least think bad of me". However when they are placed into a group, and later the group is questioned, large majority of them can't even remember the T-shirt. Because they can't care less about the T-shirt of random Joe.

While they accept that a mining Rokh is not exactly every pirates dream, social people naturally focus on the second possibility: they want to get me. Because they care about me. Because everyone in EVE will know that I'm mining in a Rokh and will have top priority to kill me. The truth is obviously the opposite: no one will give a damn.

The deep reason behind this bias is the core idea of being social: "I'm important". No, you are not. Unless you do something spectacular (or spectacular failure), no one will care about you. This is something a social is unable to accept.


Finally, based on this finding, let me suggest a basic design guideline how to change Sov mechanics to serve as "conflict drives": make null sec safe from small gangs!
  • Make cyno jammers jam covert cynos. Make cyno jammers have their own cynos, so any blue can jump to the cyno jammer itself.
  • Remove logout-hiding: if you DC/logout, your ship docks in the nearest station. If there is no  station with docking rights in the system, it does an emergency warp and stays there, scannable, destroyable. So if you log out in enemy space, you find yourself in your clone station if the owners are not especially lazy or dumb.
  • Create gatecamping towers. These towers generate a 100km wide warp block bubble centered on the gate, are equipped with automatic station guns with about 200 DPS and send a message to the alliance channel "Gate tower at [system] near the [gate it is anchored] is engaging [player] in [ship]". It has relatively low shield HP (about 5M), if the shield is down, it can be hacked to stop functioning until the owners come back shield rep and re-online it. Such towers could be anchored to wormholes too.
With these changes one is more or less safe in his own sov/WH. They will have a home worth living in. A home that feeds not only the corp leaders by moongoo, but the players themselves by mining/ratting spots. Currently the sov space is worthless as the "owners" feel just as unsafe as in a random lowsec system. You know, too many imaginary covert Tengufleets are hunting personally them.

With the "safe sov" they will utilize it. They will like it. It will feel home. They won't want to lose it. They will fight for it. Others will want to take it. A 1000+ battle at your service!

As a design criteria I would say "Sov system is broken still there is a single serious K-space alliance that doesn't want sov".


Thurstday morning report: 50.2B. (1 PLEX ahead, 1.1B spent on LCT, 0.1 on Rorqual)
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