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Monday, 30 April 2012

It's not grind they skip! (and ISK sellers)

Posted on 22:00 by Unknown
I am in firm belief that anyone buying PLEX for real money is simply a bad player. My favorite example is that if I buy my way into heavyweight boxing, paying managers to let me fight the champions it won't make me a top boxer, just a moron paying money to be beaten up (I'm not talking about illegal buying wins, just buying the matches themselves).

However the bad players and supporters keep telling that they just "skip the grind" as it's more "time efficient" to get $15 with their real life job than 500M ISK in EVE.

Finally I found the proof why it's bullshit: EVE is not WoW. In WoW to level 85 and get full honor gear is just matter of time. Anyone who is not serious mental patient can reach the level cap. You have to be very skilled in the game to artificially create a gear/talent/rotation that cannot defeat monsters of your level. Random picking will still steamroll. I soloed 5-man leveling dungeons 4-5 levels above me. Getting honor gear is even easier, you can do it completely AFK, just create a keyboard macro that jumps every 3 minutes to prevent being kicked from the battleground.

"The grind" is defined as trivial but lengthy process that is created either due to bad design or to create content where morons and slackers can feel heroes. Skilled players hate the grind as it's just a waste of time. Leveling to 85 and getting full honor gear doesn't make you better in arenas or rated BGs at all and also it's impossible to fail in it, except for not having time to do it. One who buys a honor-geared character doesn't do anything that increases his chance to win in arenas, simply skips a timesink.

Getting ISK in EVE is anything but trivial. You cannot create a "do this and this and this" guide that provides you ISK without the chance of failing. Mining? Along came a Tornado and you are 350M behind in a second. Missioning providing 100M/hour? A scanner neut alt, 3 Tornados and your 1.5B Tengu is history. Trading can obviously go wrong. There is simply no way to make ISK without getting into trouble.

Saying that "I could make 500M if I'd have 5 hours" is just as true as "I could have a 3:2 kill:death if I'd have 5 hours". You must prove it to reliably claim it. You can only skip content without being cheater if everyone agrees that the mentioned content is trivial. No sane WoW player would claim that you couldn't level up yourself. However many-many players are broke in EVE and for this reason buy PLEX from real money. Maybe you are not among them. Maybe you really could gain ISK if you'd have the time. But making that claim without proof is empty bragging. Anecdotal evidence that "I once ran missions for 50M/hour so I could do it again" is just as good as "I killed a Hel (3% damage done), so I can kill supercaps regularly". Maybe you were just extremely lucky that one time. Or times have changed and the opponents got smarter over the years.

You can only skip grind. If you skip competitive elements, you are cheating. Skipping any competitive element is cheating. Otherwise you are on the slippery slope of "I just skip one more element" until the point of you skip it all and buy a pilot with top killboard stats and peacock around without actually killing anyting yourself. That's not against the ToS either.

There is one exception of the above: if the goal of the player is not competitive with the others. For example if your aim is to have a planetary colony in every planet of Lonetrek and you buy PLEX to start it up faster, you defeated nobody in the process, so just bought convenience for yourself. Unless of course there is a planetary community with third party sites running with benchmarks and you climbed high with your purchase. Then, you are a cheater.


A related topic: illegal ISK selling. Buying illegal ISK is cheaper than PLEX. So many of the above cheaters do it. They shouldn't as their illegal transactions are reversed and now they are with negative wallet. Seems CCP really fight ISK selling. I wrote several articles back then why do Blizzard openly tolerates goldselling. I even found a blatant goldfarmer and reported him with no effect. Why? How come that the small CCP can do something against ISK selling and Blizzard cannot. The answer is simple: according to the dev blog, 1268 accounts were banned and 4.2T ISK seized. By removing this ISK, the customers of the ISK sellers could get their ISK only from CCP, by buying 8400 PLEX-es (4.2T/500M). 8400 is much greater than 1268. So the solution is that by selling PLEX, CCP is a competitor of the ISK sellers, so motivated to stop them. Blizzard, and all other MMO developers who don't do RMT themselves can't care less. You'll see that in Diablo 3, where official RMT exists, the same Blizzard that was impotent to catch the obvious bot I reported magically will be able to catch botters.


EVE Business report: Tuesday morning 17.4B (2 PLEX behind for second account, 0.3B spent on Titan project)
Remember that you can participate in our EVE conversations on the "goblinworks" channel (60-80 people on peak time) and your UI suggestions are welcomed.

PS: Comment on Hulkageddon from my girlfriend: "it's overrated"
My comment: with proper skills and Orca support the income is around 10M/hour which is far from being stellar, but safe (10 alpha Tornados needed, 12 if the pilot is at keyboard and overheats, ship costs 3 Tornados) and also it allows lowsec mining operations for much higher income assuming proper combat support is present as the miners are better tanked than the escort.
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Posted in Random | No comments

Sunday, 29 April 2012

"Burn Jita"? Rather burn M&S!

Posted on 22:00 by Unknown
So the "Burn Jita" event of the Goons has ended. Several freighters and other valuable ships were destroyed in Jita and the surroundings.

But surprisingly it had little effect on the market. I saw no price peaks. Also, I made 2.5x more profit in Jita on the first day, nicely pulling up my income, despite the prices did not rise on my field. It seems that some of the traders chickened out, and others who did not overestimate the Goon annoyance were taking their share of the profit too. On the second and third day everything went back to normal, probably even the most jumpy traders returned to their schedule. My transport interceptors were happily hauling in and out from Jita during the event, with the only complication of having one extra jump: from Perimiter to Niyabainen first and then Jita. The Goons only camped the Perimiter-Jita gate.

However the huge red ball on the "ships destroyed last hour" map shows that the Goons did not fail. They held probably the largest massacre in the history of EVE. 5K+ ships were destroyed every day in Jita and the neighboring systems. Still Jita did not burn, actually did not even blackened from the smoke. If you were sitting inside 4-4 watching the market and ignore the TiDi sign you couldn't figure out that anything was going on. It was a usual weekend business day in Jita.

How can the two both be true? Because the trade is mostly ran by professionals. Players who are informed, planning, finding ways. The massacre affected random idiots who were living under a rock and managed to not know about an event that was all over the news for a month.

My own extra profit shows that the trade system has large reserves. I guess if even half of the traders got scared of the Goons, there wouldn't be any signs on the outside, as the other half could pick up the slack. The total failure of the event to affect the trade proves how robust the player ran economy is. Of course the Goons will claim that all they wanted is to have fun, and even I wouldn't question that they had a lot. However this event was probably the last when the Goons or anyone will make claims of affecting the economy with anyone giving a damn. OTEC? Bullshit, Tc price is rising since months, The Mittani just noticed it and claimed it to be his doing. Well, the last peak on the end probably is, but not by doing any effect but by scaring some morons into a buying spree. I doubt that anyone will ever be scared of such claims once more.

The Goons and others are massacring morons and slackers. Players who can't be arsed to read up even the most obvious sources or dumb enough to make proper precautions. Of course everyone can be hunted down, but if you are not a moron or slacker, it takes incredible amount of time and resources, something that even the largest alliances don't have in the necessary amounts.

EVE is a safe and nice place. Anyone who claims differently is probably a moron or slacker who got ganked because of his own stupidity and laziness. I was ganked, but not because "EVE is evil" but because I went to lowsec with a T1 industrial. I'm capable of learning from my mistakes, the M&S cannot, since they never make any: they are just unlucky or victims or unfairness.


EVE Business report: Saturday morning 15.5B (2 PLEX behind for second account, 0.3B spent on Titan project)
Sunday morning 16.0B (2 PLEX behind for second account, 0.3B spent on Titan project)
Monday morning 16.7B (2 PLEX behind for second account, 0.3B spent on Titan project)
Remember that you can participate in our EVE conversations on the "goblinworks" channel (60-80 people on peak time) and your UI suggestions are welcomed.

It's being the last day of this month, I created a chart of my income. It's not my full asset count as I added the ISK spent on the titan/triage carrier pilot and the PLEX-es that make my main account free (as the normal way is to pay one subscription to the company). Obviously the PLEXes used for my trader alts are not included since that's operating cost. So it's rather a "how much money would I have if I'd make money and not spend on fun and convenience":
I managed to increase my assets from 3B to 16B in a month. That's 490M/day average income which is nice on its own. However what's really promising is the second order fit placed on it. It says "titan money in 4 months". But even if we go with the linear fit which is definitely an underestimation, I'll have money for a titan in 8 months. Or, if I go that way, a dozen deadspace fitted triage carriers. Are you convinced already to stop grinding and start trading?
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Friday, 27 April 2012

Jita gank survival guide

Posted on 10:48 by Unknown
While the Goons are busy ganking anything that moves in Jita, the business must go if we want income. So the hauling to Jita can't stop. Remember, your competitors are either docked or dead, so this is the time to make some good money. I'm having some really good sales today. How?

At first forget freighters and Jump freighters. They are capital ships, therefore can be rammed. The Goons don't have the manpower to blockade everything but they have bumpers on every gate. The bumper crashes with the capital ship, pushing it, preventing it from aligning while his buddies arrive. They can't do it with an industrial or a small-shiny transporting frigate. Use a standard industrial instead.

If you really have to carry a freighter-load of stuff to Jita, pay an orca to distract the Goons. It shall arrive in a far gate with full tank, while they rush and kill it, you can make your jump. Have a ganking tornado escort who can alpha any bumper. If you have to carry a freighter-load out of Jita, I'd suggest to use Jump freighter. Have a cyno ready in a safe low-sec system, undock and jump to it instantly, even if you have to freight to high-sec. But the general rule: don't! Use an industrial.

Open up the map and set the system view to statistics/ship kills in last hour. The interesting thing is not Jita, we know it's red. It's the neighboring systems. If Perimiter is red too, don't use that gate, right-click it and check "avoid Perimiter". The autopilot finds another way.

Have instant undock and dock bookmarks. Starting turning front of Jita 4-4 is a bad idea. Instant undock can be created by undocking in a shuttle or MWD-frigate and fly without turning to 150-200km. Bookmark this place, as you can instant-warp to it. The dock bookmark can be created by jumping away with your shuttle, warp to 10km, approach and keep flying until you are really close. Bookmark this place, if you jump here, you can instantly dock.

Scout your gate before jumping. Leave your stuff in the last safe system, jump in and if you arrive safely, return and pick up your stuff.

This site give you a time chart on kills so you can pick a safer time.

Good luck, and good profit!

While the freighters who got themselves killed are bad enough, they can't beat this moron! It's a tank fitted Abaddon carrying 1.5B loot. He had 109K EHP according to EFT. His rigs are bad enough, if he had just T1 versions of Trimark Pump instead, he'd have 145K. But the great is the low slot. He had an armor repairer which worth exactly zero against alpha Tornados. If he fitted some faction nano membranes, he'd have 135K (170 with proper T1!!! rigs). How could he get faction nano membranes? The damn failure had 25 in the cargohold, that was the 1.5B cargo!
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Thursday, 26 April 2012

The proper profit metric

Posted on 22:00 by Unknown
Live moron of the weekend post. Did they spent the last month under a rock?

People having trouble making ISK with trading. Some rather go missioning assuming that if you have a really good ship and know the missions inside out (like which exact point they will spawn), you can get more ISK/hour.

The first problem is the "ISK/hour" metric itself. It's an employer-way thinking that runs under the assumption that the action has only the income as result. I run a mission, I have X more ISK, end of story.

Trading needs businessman thinking. Here much time is invested without any profit. For example when I run missions for faction standing, I often gain negative ISK as I have to pay someone (usually my girlfriend) to do the security storylines. Yet it creates a lasting effect: lower broker fees for the rest of my life.

The second problem is that trading income mostly limited by capital and not time. When someone has 1-2 B, his ISK/hour can easily be worse than the income of even a miner. But doing the same moves, simply with one more zero typed into the quantity field, the income grows largely (even if not 10x). The guys who were laughing on my first posts stating that I'm just picking breadcrumbs after rich people who can't be arsed to make 2 jumps for 100K went silent some time ago, probably when I hit 10B before my third month in the game. Or when I first passed 200M/hour. My business did not change since the first month, I'm picking the same breadcrumbs, just a lot with one click. One to measure his trading/manufacturing profit must measure the profit against capital and not time spent. The latter is maybe more interesting for the player, but it will naturally grow over time, unlike in missioning or mining.

The third mistake is the metric used for profit/capital. The commonly used is completely bad. It measures profit earned over one item. If I bought it for 100M and sold it for 120M (after taxes), I got 20% profit. It's surely better than selling another 100M item for 110, right? Absolutely not! You must factor time into the metric. If you buy the item on Monday and sell it on Sunday, you got 20M during the week. If you buy an item every day and can sell it for 10M more on the evening of the same day, you got 7*10M income! To see exactly how the calculation shall go, let me show you an item from my wallet. Actually it's the wallet of all my alts, merged and sorted by time (I trade on Jita, Rens, Amarr and my Dodixie alt just started up, hence the jump in income this week).
Date Transaction Price (M) Stock
2012.03.26 14:49 2 -180.00 2
2012.03.27 04:32 -1 96.03 1
2012.03.28 16:17 -1 94.05 0
2012.03.29 18:27 2 -180.00 2
2012.03.30 03:47 -1 97.02 1
2012.03.30 05:43 -1 97.02 0
2012.03.30 11:57 2 -180.00 2
2012.03.30 17:05 -1 97.02 1
2012.03.30 18:06 1 -90.00 2
2012.03.30 19:17 -1 95.04 1
2012.03.30 19:44 1 -90.00 2
2012.03.31 01:44 -1 95.54 1
2012.03.31 04:24 1 -90.00 2
2012.03.31 05:54 -1 95.24 1
2012.03.31 06:50 -1 95.04 0
2012.03.31 08:11 3 -270.00 3
2012.03.31 12:47 -1 95.34 2
2012.03.31 13:31 -1 95.34 1
2012.03.31 13:35 -1 95.34 0
2012.03.31 13:51 3 -270.00 3
2012.03.31 15:28 -1 95.34 2
2012.04.01 03:45 -1 94.05 1
2012.04.01 06:07 -1 94.05 0
2012.04.01 08:05 3 -270.00 3
2012.04.01 13:23 -1 94.05 2
2012.04.01 17:06 -1 93.56 1
2012.04.01 19:47 1 -90.00 2
2012.04.01 20:30 -1 93.06 1
2012.04.02 04:19 2 -180.00 3
2012.04.02 06:02 -1 99.00 2
2012.04.02 15:40 1 -90.00 3
2012.04.02 18:21 -1 92.57 2
2012.04.03 11:42 -1 92.07 1
2012.04.03 14:06 2 -180.00 3
2012.04.03 15:06 -1 92.07 2
2012.04.03 17:28 -1 92.07 1
2012.04.03 17:44 3 -270.00 4
2012.04.04 03:17 -1 92.07 3
2012.04.04 04:10 -1 92.07 2
2012.04.04 04:13 -1 92.07 1
2012.04.04 04:45 3 -270.00 4
2012.04.04 09:26 -1 92.07 3
2012.04.04 12:09 -1 92.07 2
2012.04.04 13:54 2 -180.00 4
2012.04.05 20:47 -1 91.58 3
2012.04.06 00:47 -1 91.58 2
2012.04.06 04:55 -1 91.87 1
2012.04.06 15:05 -1 92.57 0
2012.04.07 05:37 1 -90.00 1
2012.04.08 06:38 -1 95.04 0
2012.04.08 12:55 1 -90.00 1
2012.04.08 14:18 -1 94.94 0
2012.04.08 14:50 2 -180.00 2
2012.04.08 15:12 -1 97.02 1
2012.04.08 15:45 -1 97.02 0
2012.04.08 15:47 1 -90.00 1
2012.04.08 15:52 1 -90.00 2
2012.04.08 18:10 -1 98.01 1
2012.04.08 18:33 2 -180.00 3
2012.04.08 19:15 -1 98.01 2
2012.04.08 19:36 -1 98.01 1
2012.04.08 20:25 -1 98.01 0
2012.04.09 01:58 2 -180.00 2
2012.04.09 07:07 -1 98.51 1
2012.04.09 12:21 -1 98.51 0
2012.04.09 14:47 1 -90.00 1
2012.04.09 16:24 -1 98.01 0
2012.04.09 18:11 2 -180.00 2
2012.04.09 20:20 -1 97.02 1
2012.04.10 01:33 -1 96.03 0
2012.04.10 07:41 2 -180.00 2
2012.04.10 11:54 -1 96.03 1
2012.04.10 13:46 -1 96.03 0
2012.04.10 17:33 2 -180.00 2
2012.04.10 19:44 -1 96.03 1
2012.04.10 22:10 -1 96.03 0
2012.04.11 01:19 2 -180.00 2
2012.04.11 02:18 -1 96.03 1
2012.04.11 07:37 -1 95.54 0
2012.04.11 13:00 2 -180.00 2
2012.04.11 13:55 -1 95.04 1
2012.04.12 03:35 1 -90.00 2
2012.04.12 04:28 1 -90.00 3
2012.04.12 04:28 2 -180.00 5
2012.04.12 14:43 -1 93.56 4
2012.04.13 11:34 -1 93.06 3
2012.04.13 20:26 -1 93.56 2
2012.04.13 23:47 -1 93.56 1
2012.04.14 04:04 2 -180.00 3
2012.04.14 09:03 -1 94.05 2
2012.04.14 10:26 -1 94.05 1
2012.04.14 14:41 2 -180.00 3
2012.04.14 22:44 -1 95.04 2
2012.04.14 23:57 -1 95.04 1
2012.04.15 04:10 4 -360.00 5
2012.04.15 05:01 -1 98.01 4
2012.04.15 05:46 -1 95.44 3
2012.04.15 08:48 -1 95.44 2
2012.04.15 10:42 -1 95.04 1
2012.04.15 14:15 1 -90.00 2
2012.04.15 18:27 1 -90.00 3
2012.04.15 18:38 1 -90.00 4
2012.04.15 19:48 -1 96.53 3
2012.04.16 02:59 1 -90.00 4
2012.04.16 04:03 -1 107.91 3
2012.04.16 06:15 -1 95.54 2
2012.04.16 09:00 -1 95.54 1
2012.04.17 16:27 2 -180.00 3
2012.04.17 19:06 -1 107.91 2
2012.04.18 04:49 1 -90.00 3
2012.04.18 08:48 -1 107.91 2
2012.04.18 15:35 -1 97.02 1
2012.04.18 19:14 2 -180.00 3
2012.04.18 19:14 1 -90.00 4
2012.04.19 04:15 -1 108.90 3
2012.04.19 15:42 2 -180.00 5
2012.04.19 20:02 -1 94.05 4
2012.04.20 03:37 1 -90.00 5
2012.04.20 06:20 -1 107.91 4
2012.04.20 14:25 2 -180.00 6
2012.04.20 15:32 -1 93.06 5
2012.04.20 20:00 -1 92.57 4
2012.04.20 21:09 -1 93.06 3
2012.04.21 12:13 -1 90.59 2
2012.04.21 15:41 3 -270.00 5
2012.04.21 17:13 -1 92.57 4
2012.04.21 22:11 -1 92.57 3
2012.04.22 02:39 -1 92.57 2
2012.04.22 04:49 1 -90.00 3
2012.04.22 05:32 3 -270.00 6
2012.04.22 10:09 -1 107.91 5
2012.04.22 13:35 -1 92.07 4
2012.04.23 01:23 -1 92.07 3
2012.04.23 01:39 -1 92.07 2
2012.04.23 15:49 3 -270.00 5
2012.04.23 16:57 -1 97.02 4
2012.04.23 18:16 -1 97.02 3
2012.04.23 18:35 -1 97.02 2
2012.04.23 19:02 4 -360.00 6
2012.04.23 23:35 -1 97.02 5
2012.04.24 01:24 -1 97.02 4
2012.04.24 20:00 -1 96.53 3
2012.04.24 20:55 -1 96.53 2
2012.04.25 03:40 3 -270.00 5


76.94 2.24

The first column is date, the second is item amount bought or sold, the third is the price after subtraction of taxes. The last one is critical, it's the stock size. It increases whenever I buy and decreases when I sell. Multiplied by the price of the item it tells the capital used for this item in that moment.

The "76.94" is the sum of the buys and sells. Watch out, it's not the net profit, as I have 5 items in stock (last row, 4th column), which worth at least their buy price, 90M each. So the net profit is 526.9M.

The "2.24" is the average of the stock. So on average I have 2.24*90 = 201.6M capital locked down in this business. Actually this isn't accurate since it should be weighted by the times. If I buy an item and hold it for a month, my stock size is 1, if I sell it in a minute, it's near zero. However the distribution of buys and sells are random enough to let me be lazy and use EXCEL instead of coding.

Now the real metric! The one we have to know evaluating this item is the monthly profit per capital. Luckily the time frame of this table is exactly one month, so I just divide total profit by capital locked, getting 261%. Nice profit.

To see the importance of this metric, lets see a much less fortunate item. The one I bought 110 instead of 10 by accident:
Date Transaction Price Stock
2012.04.02 19:03 2 -20.00 2
2012.04.02 19:29 1 -10.00 3
2012.04.02 20:12 -1 11.79 2
2012.04.03 05:09 -1 10.89 1
2012.04.03 08:47 5 -50.00 6
2012.04.03 09:19 -1 10.89 5
2012.04.03 15:32 -1 10.89 4
2012.04.04 13:43 3 -30.00 7
2012.04.04 19:58 -1 10.89 6
2012.04.05 07:19 -1 10.89 5
2012.04.05 10:08 -1 10.89 4
2012.04.05 16:02 -1 10.40 3
2012.04.05 16:24 -1 10.40 2
2012.04.05 16:56 -1 10.40 1
2012.04.05 17:39 5 -50.00 6
2012.04.05 18:19 -1 10.40 5
2012.04.05 19:52 5 -50.00 10
2012.04.05 20:22 -1 10.40 9
2012.04.05 21:08 -1 12.87 8
2012.04.05 21:12 -1 10.40 7
2012.04.05 21:43 -1 12.87 6
2012.04.05 21:47 -1 10.40 5
2012.04.05 22:42 -1 10.40 4
2012.04.06 01:58 5 -50.00 9
2012.04.06 05:39 -5 51.98 4
2012.04.06 15:07 10 -100.00 14
2012.04.06 17:24 -1 10.40 13
2012.04.06 18:50 -1 10.40 12
2012.04.06 21:04 -1 10.40 11
2012.04.07 09:30 -1 10.40 10
2012.04.07 20:13 -1 10.40 9
2012.04.07 22:55 -1 10.40 8
2012.04.08 05:32 -1 10.40 7
2012.04.08 05:43 -1 10.40 6
2012.04.08 07:11 -1 10.40 5
2012.04.08 07:40 -1 10.40 4
2012.04.08 09:08 -1 12.87 3
2012.04.08 09:29 -1 10.40 2
2012.04.08 12:46 -1 10.40 1
2012.04.08 15:02 -1 10.40 0
2012.04.08 16:14 10 -100.00 10
2012.04.08 17:58 5 -50.00 15
2012.04.08 20:07 -1 10.40 14
2012.04.08 23:43 -1 10.89 13
2012.04.09 15:56 -1 10.69 12
2012.04.09 19:58 -1 10.40 11
2012.04.09 20:02 -1 10.40 10
2012.04.10 03:46 -1 10.40 9
2012.04.10 14:02 -1 10.79 8
2012.04.10 14:49 -1 12.87 7
2012.04.10 17:24 -1 10.40 6
2012.04.10 19:47 -1 10.40 5
2012.04.10 20:10 -1 10.40 4
2012.04.10 20:27 -1 10.40 3
2012.04.11 00:17 -1 10.40 2
2012.04.11 06:42 10 -100.00 12
2012.04.11 08:50 3 -30.00 15
2012.04.11 15:44 -1 10.40 14
2012.04.11 16:32 10 -100.00 24
2012.04.11 18:48 -1 10.40 23
2012.04.11 19:45 -1 10.49 22
2012.04.11 20:19 -1 10.40 21
2012.04.11 20:55 -1 10.40 20
2012.04.11 21:19 -1 10.49 19
2012.04.11 21:39 -1 10.40 18
2012.04.12 01:20 -1 10.40 17
2012.04.12 05:01 -1 10.49 16
2012.04.12 14:50 -1 10.40 15
2012.04.12 15:59 -1 10.40 14
2012.04.12 18:19 -1 10.40 13
2012.04.12 20:19 -1 10.40 12
2012.04.12 20:34 8 -80.00 20
2012.04.13 01:17 -1 10.49 19
2012.04.13 02:53 -1 10.40 18
2012.04.13 08:42 -1 10.40 17
2012.04.13 09:15 -1 10.40 16
2012.04.13 22:10 -1 10.40 15
2012.04.13 22:51 -1 10.40 14
2012.04.14 01:30 -1 10.40 13
2012.04.14 01:41 -1 10.40 12
2012.04.14 02:10 -1 10.40 11
2012.04.14 02:38 -1 10.40 10
2012.04.14 05:14 5 -50.00 15
2012.04.14 07:42 1 -10.00 16
2012.04.14 07:58 -1 10.40 15
2012.04.14 09:38 -1 10.40 14
2012.04.14 12:34 -1 10.89 13
2012.04.14 13:50 -1 10.89 12
2012.04.14 13:56 -1 10.30 11
2012.04.14 17:38 -1 10.30 10
2012.04.14 18:00 -1 10.30 9
2012.04.14 21:46 -1 10.89 8
2012.04.15 02:47 -1 10.89 7
2012.04.15 06:31 -1 10.89 6
2012.04.15 12:14 -1 10.89 5
2012.04.15 12:50 -1 10.89 4
2012.04.15 12:57 -1 10.39 3
2012.04.15 12:59 -1 10.10 2
2012.04.15 13:38 10 -100.00 12
2012.04.15 13:44 110 -1100.00 122
2012.04.15 19:00 -1 10.00 121
2012.04.16 00:21 -1 10.84 120
2012.04.16 10:53 -1 10.89 119
2012.04.16 14:36 -1 10.84 118
2012.04.17 03:35 -1 10.84 117
2012.04.17 14:08 -1 10.84 116
2012.04.17 16:31 -1 10.00 115
2012.04.18 06:40 -1 10.84 114
2012.04.18 09:30 -1 10.84 113
2012.04.18 10:13 -1 9.95 112
2012.04.18 13:14 -1 9.95 111
2012.04.18 13:31 -1 9.95 110
2012.04.18 13:57 -1 9.95 109
2012.04.18 14:18 -1 9.95 108
2012.04.18 19:02 -1 9.90 107
2012.04.18 21:26 -1 9.90 106
2012.04.18 23:01 -1 9.90 105
2012.04.18 23:11 -1 9.90 104
2012.04.18 23:14 -1 9.90 103
2012.04.19 03:36 -2 19.80 101
2012.04.19 05:22 -1 9.90 100
2012.04.19 12:20 -1 10.05 99
2012.04.19 16:08 -1 10.05 98
2012.04.19 18:14 -1 9.90 97
2012.04.19 18:48 -1 9.90 96
2012.04.19 21:02 -1 9.90 95
2012.04.19 22:23 -1 9.90 94
2012.04.20 03:42 -1 9.90 93
2012.04.20 05:17 -1 10.00 92
2012.04.20 05:59 -1 10.84 91
2012.04.20 07:11 -1 10.00 90
2012.04.20 07:41 -1 10.00 89
2012.04.20 17:01 -1 10.00 88
2012.04.20 21:06 -1 10.00 87
2012.04.20 21:58 -1 10.00 86
2012.04.21 07:53 -1 10.00 85
2012.04.21 08:10 -1 10.00 84
2012.04.21 08:45 -1 10.00 83
2012.04.21 09:40 -1 10.25 82
2012.04.21 11:54 -1 10.00 81
2012.04.21 12:15 -1 10.05 80
2012.04.21 14:27 -1 10.00 79
2012.04.21 14:28 -1 10.00 78
2012.04.21 14:55 -1 10.00 77
2012.04.21 19:52 -1 10.00 76
2012.04.21 22:11 -1 10.00 75
2012.04.21 23:32 -1 10.25 74
2012.04.21 23:50 -1 10.25 73
2012.04.21 23:58 -1 10.25 72
2012.04.22 04:28 -1 10.00 71
2012.04.22 04:43 -1 10.00 70
2012.04.22 07:58 -1 10.00 69
2012.04.22 10:00 -1 10.00 68
2012.04.22 13:47 -1 10.00 67
2012.04.22 20:59 -1 10.00 66
2012.04.23 11:29 -1 10.25 65
2012.04.23 15:52 -1 10.00 64
2012.04.24 02:00 -1 10.00 63
2012.04.24 04:02 -1 10.00 62
2012.04.24 04:51 -1 10.25 61
2012.04.24 13:59 -1 10.00 60
2012.04.24 15:47 -1 10.00 59
2012.04.24 15:52 -1 10.00 58
2012.04.24 17:16 -1 10.25 57
2012.04.24 18:55 -1 10.00 56
2012.04.24 19:52 -1 10.00 55
2012.04.24 20:10 -1 10.00 54
2012.04.24 20:59 -1 10.00 53
2012.04.24 23:14 -1 10.49 52
2012.04.25 06:50 -1 10.49 51
2012.04.25 07:47 -1 10.00 50


-439.27 41.73
As you can see, I still have 50 items. Since one piece costs 10M, the net profit is 60.7M. The profit per item is 607%, better than 526% of the previous item! Except on average 417M of my capital is locked down in this thing, making my monthly profit per capital to 20.5% (the timeframe is 22 days). Ouch! Also, before the fail the average was 8 items on stock, with that my profit rate would still be just 106%, so this item would be worse than the first, even if I hadn't fail with that buy.

Unfortunately to create these calculations I had to copy-paste the wallet table (before that fishing in the CSV returned by the API) since no program provides this data. However knowing it is necessary to figure out proper stock size: the less items you buy at once, the higher this metric will be at the cost of less overall profit on the item (as you lose sales when you are out of stock). The perfect situation is when all your items have the same profit/capital/time and no other item (the ones you don't trade) has higher, even with one item on stock. It also means that as your capital increases, you can include more and more items or higher and higher stocks, your profit increases but with diminishing returns.

Making the same calculation for manufacturing is even harder as you have to assign the materials and the production costs to a project, define clear entry and exit points (which are obvious for trading). However I'm sure that most industrialists would be very surprised to see that their pet ship business brings some joke profit, like 20-30%/month.

If you are up to coding and want to create a useful tool, make this and I'll make it "famous" on my blog. Just make sure it's open source and doesn't need closed source programs (besides ones in control of CCP). I won't suggest or even use closed third party code that require my wallet API key for obvious reasons.


EVE Business report: Friday morning 14.5B (2 PLEX behind for second account, 0.3B spent on Titan project)
Remember that you can participate in our EVE conversations on the "goblinworks" channel (60-80 people on peak time) and your UI suggestions are welcomed.
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